Why We’re Voting YES on 10-1
This November, as part of general elections in Virginia, voters in the city of Virginia Beach will finally vote on a referendum regarding the local election system. There has been a lot of debate online and in the public sphere about the legality of the various systems, prior studies, the methods of changing the city charter, and the Voting Rights Act.
It basically comes down to this (applying to both city council and school board) - do voters want to vote in ten districts with one at-large member (10-1), or seven districts with four at-large members (7-3-1)? (On city council, the mayor is one at-large member.) The story of how we got here has involved lawsuits, independent consultants, political committees with different kinds of donors and supporters, and unlikely alliances.
I’m not planning to sort out ALL the historical details as it does get confusing, although I will hit on it as there are some key points. What I want to do with this piece is talk about the three reasons I believe 10-1 is a better system for Virginia Beach, and also address a couple of the objections to formally implementing the 10-1 system. So if you are interested, please keep reading. First, a bit of history …
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Let’s start with some information about Virginia Beach in general. Virginia Beach was originally incorporated as an independent city in 1952. At that time, it consisted only of the resort area, and was surrounded by Princess Anne County in far southeast Virginia. Just to its west, the city of Norfolk had existed for over a century at this time. There was also the city of South Norfolk and Norfolk County bordering these counties and cities.
In 1963, the entirety of Princess Anne County was annexed into Virginia Beach (if I recall the history correctly because obviously I wasn’t here, part of this was because there was a concern that Norfolk was planning to annex it which would squeeze Virginia Beach and give it almost no influence in the region). That same year, South Norfolk and Norfolk County merged to form the new City of Chesapeake. This created a geographic triangle of sorts among the three cities that form most of southern Hampton Roads today. Along with Portsmouth, they now form what is nicknamed the “southside” of Hampton Roads.
The city was originally divided into seven boroughs, with one council member elected from each, voted on by residents of the borough. One council member was elected by the council internally from among the members to be the mayor. This system lasted until 1988. (For ease of discussion moving forward, keep in mind the makeup and voting method for school board aligns with city council.)
From 1988 on, the mayor was a separate position directly elected by voters across the entire city. This led to the election of Meyera Oberndorf, the first directly elected mayor, who remained in that position for 20 years.
In 1998, Virginia Beach replaced the seven boroughs with seven new districts. Candidates were required to be residents of their districts, but, and this is important, all council positions and the mayor were voted on by the entire city. It is also important to note that each seat was its own ballot question. So this was a system with district residence requirements for seven of the seats, but basically all voting was citywide at-large. At the same time, three additional seats were created that were purely at-large with no residence requirements - those candidates could live anywhere in the city. This is now known as the original 7-3-1.
This system persisted until 2020, when a federal case was brought by two Virginia Beach residents alleging this version of the 7-3-1 (residence requirements but at-large voting, with each seat separate on the ballot) violated the Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965 by unlawfully diluting minority voting. By this point, Virginia Beach’s population had grown to over 450,000. Geographically, it is a relatively large city, with farmland, oceanfront, residential, and industrial areas - and thus there are several sometimes competing interests involved, which should be expected with a city of this size and variety.
In 2021, the court found that the original 7-3-1 violated Section 2 of the VRA through that dilution, and ordered the city to adopt a different voting system. The city worked with a special master, who developed a 10 district system, with one at-large member who would be the mayor. This is the 10-1 system. District candidates had to live in the district and were only voted on by voters in that district. Elections in 2022 and 2024 were held under this system, but the charter has not yet been formally modified. Per the charter, this is done via referendum proposed by city council and voted on in a general election. In a separate court case recently decided, a court basically ruled that the 10-1 system is in violation of the law because that hadn’t happened, but left the 2022 and 2024 results in place. Meanwhile, the referendum was finally in process of being put on the ballot.
(I should also note that in 2021, Virginia passed a state law that made citywide at-large voting for a local district seat illegal. This did create confusion in the court proceedings as it made the first ruling discussed above moot - the original 7-3-1 at-large system would now be in violation of this state law - but it did provide some clarity regarding whether that system could ever be restored legally.)
The referendum has two possible outcomes; the 10-1 which was used in 2022 and 2024 and described above (this is the ‘YES’ vote on the referendum), and a “modified” 7-3-1 system which would basically return to the seven districts with four total at-large seats, but the seven district members would be elected only by voters from those districts instead of at large (the ‘NO’ vote on the referendum).
I know that’s a lot, but I thought it was worth writing how things got to where we stand today including the explanation of the two systems currently being considered. It’s important to keep in mind that all these legal maneuverings cost money.
Now, I want to get into the three main reasons why I think 10-1 is a better system for Virginia Beach at this time.
DIVERSITY OF IDEAS
I believe that there is a difference in the type of representation that will be on city council and the school board between the two systems, and that the 10-1 system has the potential to be more representative of varying interests across the city. And because I’m a numbers guy, I’m going to use math to explain why.
Let’s say, for the sake of simplicity, that there is an ideological split across the city of about 51%-49%. (This is actually close to how the presidential race split in the city.) What would you say a fair split of council seats would be in that situation? If you said 5-5 with a mayor on the 51% side (so making it 6-5), I would agree with that. It makes sense … yes there is a majority but a slim one; and if there is a contentious issue, only one council person shifting from their “normal” consensus changes the outcome. It allows for robust debate and members being responsive to public input.
The 10-1 system gives the best chance of achieving this split; the “original” 7-3-1 (all elected at-large) the worst; and “modified” 7-3-1 somewhere in the middle. This is because, in any citywide election, the most likely result is that the candidate on the 51% side will win. So for the original 7-3-1 system, an 11-0 “split” of council members is actually a decent possibility, which would leave the 49% with zero representation on council. As 98th district state delegate candidate Cheryl Smith noted when speaking to council recently, “If all of you are the same, we only need one of you.” (Note this also applies to minority representation, which is why the original 7-3-1 all at-large system was struck down under the VRA.)
In the modified 7-3-1 system, four of those seats would likely be won by the 51% side. If the remaining seven seats are split evenly, that results in either an 8-3 or 7-4 advantage for the 51%. Although only a couple of seats, this is a far different situation than a 6-5 split. It makes compromise less attractive, and harder for the 49% to get their viewpoint addressed.
The creation of smaller districts under the 10-1 system, and having more district seats, makes those positions more accessible to everyday candidates as well. In 2022 and 2024, candidates won seats with far less funding than their opponents. They won with ideas and getting those ideas out to their voters. They didn’t need deep pockets providing resources thus making them beholden to those deep pockets. Although no system is immune from today’s world of corporate funding, it makes it more possible to win without it.
We still need good honorable candidates, and we still need broad campaign finance reform at all governmental levels; but 10-1 provides opportunities that would be less accessible under either 7-3-1 system.
To sum up this point, 10-1 provides the best opportunity for diversity of ideas on city council and school board.
LEGALITY UNDER THE VRA
As discussed earlier, the original 7-3-1 was ruled in violation of the VRA, and as of 2021 it would now be in violation of state law. The 10-1 system, if approved into the charter, would definitely in compliance with both. But what about the “modified” 7-3-1 where there is district-only voting for the seven district seats?
That is a good question, and it would hinge on whether the four at-large seats similarly (but to an admittedly lesser extent) dilute minority voting in the city. It seems it would be in compliance with state law, but would it also be in compliance with the VRA?
I can’t be certain, but what I can be certain of is if the modified 7-3-1 wins on the referendum; right, wrong, or indifferent, it WILL end up being taken to court. That will cost the city even more money than has already been spent litigating this issue over the last five years. (It is conceivable that the 10-1 could get litigated as well, but it wouldn’t be over the VRA or the 2021 state law.)
Now, if I believed that the modified 7-3-1 was better, I would be in favor of going that route and having that fight. But, because I have come to be in favor of 10-1, this becomes a valid thing to bring up for those that may be on the fence. It could very well be that, if the referendum “fails” this time, we will be right back here in another five years having another discussion and referendum.
For the reason that 10-1 is significantly less vulnerable to challenge under the VRA and state law if approved, I think it is a much better and cleaner option.
WHO IS BEHIND THE ‘NO’ CAMPAIGN
The third thing I’m looking at, that is reinforcing my “yes” vote, is who is funding the pretty significant local campaign to vote “no” on the resolution and get us to the 7-3-1 system. Before I get into that, I do want to say that this doesn’t on its own make that side the wrong side, and under our campaign system, there’s nothing illegal about spending money to support a candidate or position. But it does beg the question of why particular “no” supporters are pushing their side so hard financially.
Soon after the referendum was announced, very large signs started popping up all over the city. An example is below. I feel these signs are pushing a false narrative for the reasons I talked about above and others I will get into in a bit.
In addition, the organizers of that campaign have been caught implying at least one organization is in favor of the “no” position by including their logo … which that organization had to deny.
So who is providing the funding for all this campaigning? The organization is called “Every Vote Counts VB” and luckily there is a web site that provides all public donation data for candidates and organizations that are on the ballot run by the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP). The information on donations to this organization is located here and there is a lot of money pouring into a local referendum question: Every Vote Counts VB Funding Report
To get an idea of how much money is being spent on this ‘NO’ campaign, these contributions total more than twice as much as all candidates spent on the last at-large seat citywide election COMBINED.
Most, if not all, of those top donors are involved in real estate, construction, retail, or hotel management. So why is this so important to them?
It gets to what I wrote above when discussing that 10-1 provides more opportunity for a diversity of ideas. To recall, candidates in smaller districts don’t “need deep pockets providing resources thus making them beholden to those deep pockets.” These donors know that more at-large seats and larger districts enable them to fund who they want so that other candidates can get overwhelmed. Now, this could still happen in a 10-1, but smaller districts make it easier for a candidate to reach their particular electorate with a smaller budget.
From my perspective, more at-large seats and larger districts enables the buying of particular candidates that these groups believe they can get to vote in their favor even if it would be against the public opinion of their electorate. And since a 7-3-1 also reduces the chance of getting a truly representative elected body, it will also be harder to turn a council as a whole against those moneyed interests, if it is in the interest of regular voters.
There is at least one organization that has formed in favor of voting “yes” on the referendum, known simply as “Yes for Virginia Beach”. That organization appears to have assembled in response to the campaign push from “Every Vote Counts VB”. “Yes for Virginia Beach” has a bipartisan group made up of Senator Aaron Rouse, Delegate Alex Askew, Councilwoman Jennifer Rouse, former Councilman John Moss, and other leaders and community organizations out in front. They do not appear to have the level of funding or the same sources that “Every Vote Counts VB” does, but I cannot be sure because as I write this there is an error on VPAP’s tracking page for “Yes for Virginia Beach”; however, I’m providing the link here in the hope it is a temporary glitch: Yes for Virginia Beach Funding Report
In summary, because 10-1 makes it easier to campaign with smaller budgets and smaller donations, I believe it is a more public-friendly system. (And I don’t trust corporate interests to align with public interests.)
ARGUMENTS FOR 7-3-1
There are arguments to be made for voting “no” on the referendum and thus implementing the modified 7-3-1 system. I want to touch on a couple of those.
First, the most common and not entirely dismissible argument is that the 10-1 system removes too much voting power from every resident because instead of having five seats that each city voter can vote on under 7-3-1 (4 at-large and 1 district), 10-1 only provides each individual voter two seats to vote on. After all, it used to be that each resident could vote on all eleven seats. On the surface this does make some sense, but if I can get wonky for a second, I think there are mathematical reasons why this argument is not as obvious as it appears, which adds to what I wrote above about getting a broader diversity of ideas on council.
For the sake of discussion, let’s set the mark of 100% as the level of influence an individual voter has on their district representative under a 10-1 system. (This is a metaphor for voting influence for simplicity’s sake.) Because those are the smaller-sized districts, a single voter has the most impact on that seat in that scenario. They get one other vote, for the at-large seat; but since that seat has ten times the electorate size, each voter’s influence level on that seat becomes 10%.
Shifting focus to the modified 7-3-1, it’s true that each voter can vote for four at-large seats; but again with that 100% influence level set to the same baseline, a voter’s influence on each of those seats is only 10%. That’s okay though, because they still get to vote for a district seat right? There’s a catch - each district is larger under this system. So your influence level on your district representative is only 70% (7:10 ratio).
If you get a bit lost in the math that’s okay … the bottom line is a voter does get to vote for more seats under 7-3-1 but has less influence on each of those seats.
If you think of voting influence being commensurate with policy influence, then you have less influence on those reps, including your district rep, under 7-3-1 than you have on your district rep under 10-1 … which means it is more likely your district rep will listen to you under 10-1 especially if you can band together as a group.
There is an argument that this can lead to more “tribalism” or siloed voting on council. I admit that can be a concern. However, it can also lead to more voices getting a chance to be heard, more robust discussion, and giving the voters of each district more power to make a change in their district if they are unhappy with their rep.
A second argument that has been made, but to a lesser extent, is that other cities in Virginia use a fully at large system, so why don’t those cities have to change? The most common ones cited are Chesapeake, Norfolk, and Roanoke. So I took a look at the at-large voting systems used in those particular cities. It is true that they use a fully at-large voting system for city council, but there are some significant differences that it would seem keep them in compliance with the VRA.
Remember this that I wrote above from the original 7-3-1 system in Virginia Beach that existed from 1988 until it was struck down in 2021: “Candidates were required to be residents of their districts, but, and this is important, all council positions and the mayor were voted on by the entire city. It is also important to note that each seat was its own ballot question.”
That second sentence is where the difference lies. Among all the cities I looked at, Virginia Beach was the only city of significant size to have an at-large voting system where each seat was a separate ballot question. I believe this is the part that truly violated the VRA.
When I looked at those other three cities cited and select others that had full at-large voting, they use a system that puts all candidates on a single ballot question, and then the top choices get seats until all seats are filled. For example, if there are three seats open and nine candidates, all nine candidates are on the same ballot question and everyone votes for one (or maybe two) of those nine. The top three vote getters fill the seats.
Why does that make a difference with regards to the VRA, and to the representation? Because it makes it likely that at least one of those seats will get filled by a minority and/or ideological minority, thus it is my interpretation that this system does not violate the VRA. Thus that type of at-large system should provide broader representation and less minority vote dilution than the original 7-3-1 system that Virginia Beach used. Virginia Beach’s size and the size of city council and school board would likely make that type of system unwieldy here.
The one exception I’ve been able to find is the city of Poquoson, but there are huge differences between Poquoson and Virginia Beach. They have a three-seat city council for a city of 12,000 people, where 92% of them voted ideologically the same in the last election. Plus, in the last council election, all three seats were unopposed.
The last argument I’ll address is a purely legal one, that argues that because the latest round of elections were held in an illegal manner, there is not a validly elected city council and thus they cannot legally create a referendum. I consider this to be an extreme view, which I believe has been invalidated by the latest court decision basically ruling that, although the 2022 and 2024 election method of 10-1 was not covered legally as they conflicted with the city charter, those elections are allowed to stand as is because the election method proscribed in the charter is also illegal per the VRA. The whole purpose of the referendum is to get the charter updated with a election method aligned with the law.
THE VOTE
To sum up once again the three points I find in favor of voting YES on the referendum:
10-1 provides the best opportunity for diversity of ideas on city council and school board
10-1 is significantly less vulnerable to challenge under the VRA and state law if approved
10-1 makes it easier to campaign with smaller budgets and smaller donations
Early voting starts on September 19th, with Election Day on November 4th, so I wanted to get this out this week before voting begins. I hope this has been helpful to you. I encourage everyone to go check out the other side of the argument, and no matter which way you decide, please let your voices be heard in every race this year. It is consequential at every level.
The links to the two main organizations campaigning for each side of the referendum are below.
YES (10-1): Yes For Virginia Beach
NO (7-3-1): Every Vote Counts
Written by Aaron Speca and originally published on Substack: https://substack.com/@gobblervt/note/p-173385763